August 27, 2019

In part 1 of the series, I established the existence of two main Igbo ideological factions over the existential question of one Nigeria. I refer to the question of one Nigeria as an existential question for the Igbos because the future of the Igbos and their existence as a people depend on how that question is answered. I also established in part 1 that the relationship between the two factions has been characterized by tension and mutual suspicion, and why. I also posited that the tension between the two has escalated naturally to the point of open hostility as confirmed by the attack on Senator Ekweremadu in Germany recently. We must therefore see the Ekweremadu incident as a turning point or a defining moment in the relationship between the restructuring school and the secessionist school of the Ideological divide. Another important element in understanding the differences in the respective attitudes and orientations of the two groups is the generational factor. Compared to factors such as education and wealth, the most outstanding difference between the two factions lies in the fact that they belong mostly to different generations and that has influenced how each faction approaches the question. Whereas, the leaders of the restructuring group are 55 and above, the leaders of the secessionist group are 50 and below. It means that whereas, the restructuring group are made up of people who witnessed the pain and humiliation of the civil war and fear the repeat of war, leaders of the secessionist group did not see the civil war and are not as afraid of war. As is well recognized, knowledge of history has a paradoxical effect on human beings. On the positive side, the knowledge of history equips you with the benefit of hindsight and the wisdom that can come from it. But on the negative side, it burdens you with fear and trepidation leading to inertia and stagnation. For a man like Nnia Nwodo, for instance, who is over 70, he remembers the civil war, the death, the hunger, the humiliation of the Igbos with the 20-pounds-only policy and the policy of abandoned property. Nwodo will more easily associate secession of the Igbos with war and defeat and pain and suffering. Nnamdi Kanu does not have such ready mental connection between secession and war, and even when he foresees war, he does not have such visceral connection between war and defeat. Now, it is not a question of which of the two has a better judgment over the issue. In fact, both of them are guessing the future. What is important is that they have different perceptions of the future, which motivate them differently. Also, among the people of Northern Nigeria, they must act based on their sense of the same history. Those who make decisions for the North are similarly old people. They will perceive secession as likely to lead to war that they will win. The Northern leaders faced with Ohaneze leaders will be aggressive, assertive and unyielding, while Ohaneze leaders will be timid and conceding. (But we are still talking about the Igbo-against-Igbo stage of the conflict.) To further emphasize the importance of generational awareness, I recall the words of Robert Greene:  With generational awareness, "we can see what forces shaped our parents' mindset, and then ours in turn, as we have tried to go in different direction. We can make better sense of the underling changes going on in all areas of society and begin to surmise where the world is headed, to anticipate future tends and to understand the role we can play in shaping events." He continued: To attain generational awareness, "first we must understand the actual profound effect that our generation has on how we view the world, and second we must understand the larger generational patterns that shape history and recognize where our time period fits into the overall scheme." It is clear that leaders of both factions have not fully considered how the generational factors have influence their approaches to the question. Hence their inability to bridge the gap between them and reconcile to the quicken the date of success. Note: the purpose of the generational analysis I made here is to convince you that the restructuring faction will be defeated by natural forces, and the secessionists will prevail. The only question now is how long the fight between the factions might delay things. Another factor that should be brought in here is how some external forces might  play to the advantage of the Igbos. The idea of one Nigeria where the North dominates everybody has actually not been in the long term interests of the North. That was what led to the current backward state of Nigeria. We can attribute virtually all the negative indicia in Nigeria today  to the fact that the North wanted to monopolize power through the subjugation of the Igbos. That's also the reason Nigeria cannot fight insurgency in the northeast. The Nigerian army was designed to prevent a break-up by secession. The army did not prepare to prevent a break-up by invasion. So when Boko Haram invaded Nigeria with plans to carve off a part of its territory, the Nigerian army proved unable. If there had been an army that fully included everybody, it would have been a strong disciplined fighting force that would dispatch Boko Haram within a few days. Thus, the fear on the part of the Igbos that secession would lead to war that the Igbos would lose is exaggerated. The secessionist group is more forward looking because they embody the spirit of the time. They understand that restructuring is no longer an attractive option because it will continue to place the Igbos under the control of the North which will sabotage or derail the restructuring whenever it suits them.  Restructuring might have been an option 25 years ago when the North still had the initiative. But presently, the North is ravaged by wars and instabilities in multiple fronts. The persecution of the middle belt and the alienation of the Yorubas means that the North will not muster the cohesion it needs to keep Nigeria one by force. But this does not mean that the secessionists should  start celebrating. Victory for them is by no means guaranteed. They have not defeated their elder brothers in the restructuring faction.  And when they do, they still have to face the challenges of addressing the interest of the 30% of Biafrans who are not Igbos. All that must be done before they can squarely face the North. In the final part of this series, I will look into how secessionists will have to transition their identity from "Ndi Igbo" to "Ndi Biafra". A minority population of up to 30% is a dynamite in the making and a boiling source of new tensions. Several fundamental issues and roadmap questions must be studied and analyzed.   Dr. Greg 3rd and final part is to follow.