Revolution-Now: the fate of Sowore two weeks after

Remember the analysis and predictions of DPA Rambo concerning Sowore and how it all came to pass as predicted.

Two weeks after, Rambo can make further predictions and suggestions as follows:

It is important to note that as at this time, nobody is talking about revolution or how to overthrow the government and cause a fundamental change any more. The only thing being discussed by decreasing number of people is how to get Sowore out of DSS detention cell or how to have him transfered to prison by arraigning him in court.

Whenever the discussion of a revolution moves from substance of fundamental change to how to spare the neck of the leader of the revolution, you need not be told that the revolution has failed. In the case of Sowore’s revolution, it never existed. When finally charged to court, Sowore’s best defense will be to deny that there was ever any revolution. Apart from his denial of its existence, everybody knows that the revolution failed immediately it crossed Sowore’s mind.

Today makes it one week since his arrest and detention by DSS was validated by a court order. Sowore has 38 days remaining out of the initial 45 days of his detention period. The confused voices calling for his unconditional release have quietened down, naturally. The longer he stays in detention, the fewer and fewer the voices calling for his release. That’s how it works. He never had the capacity for a prolonged fight.

Before, I go further, let me make it clear to you that I do not support the arrest and detention of Sowore. Nigeria should stick strictly to the constitutional term of 24 hours for pre-indictment detentions. The only difference between the typical supporter of Sowore and me is that while I look at the Nigerian law before commenting, his supporters either forget about the law or they are in denial.

Many people, including lawyers, will speak about fundamental rights without remembering the judicial order exception. You should always read the fundamental rights sections of the Constitution with that exception. So, before you speak categorically about any provision of fundamental rights sections, start by saying silently the following words, “Except there is a judicial order to the contrary” before you start stating the right. For instance, when it comes to the freedom of movement, I will read it as follows “Unless a court of law has ordered otherwise”, a person shall be entitled to freedom of movement.

The idea is simple. If the court has ordered you to be detained, you no longer have the freedom of movement. If the court has ordered that a person be detained, it is totally strange to look at the executive arm of government and demand an unconditional release of the person. There is a difference between a detention order signed by the Police or DSS and the one signed by the courts. A detention order signed by the DSS does not affect the definition of your rights. But that signed by court will override the right you are claiming. It shouldn’t be hard for you to know that the court interprets the Constitution and can determine when to suspect your rights. So, being detained based on a court order, the only way to release Sowore is to return to court and have the order varied or modified.

As for the recent protest in Abuja by a handful of Sowore’s personal friends, it is important to know how DSS would interpret such protest. DSS is an agency with excessive powers and scanty legislative oversight and total lack of executive supervision. Also, for your information, the DSS has been able to intimidate the judges. Who is the judge that will deny a DSS request to detain a person accused of treason and terrorism?  What many Nigerians do not realize is that Nigerian law enforcement agencies are more repressive now than during the Military rule, and our judges are more timid now than then.

If you noticed, the judge that granted the order to detain Sowore said he did not have the power to refuse to grant it. Well, that’s not entirely true. The judge had a lot of power which he chose to exercise in favor of DSS. For instance, yes, the judge seemed bound to grant the order. However, it was totally up to him the length of time of detention to grant them. Just as the judge was able to reduce the period of detention from 90 days requested by DSS to 45 days, he could have reduced it to 7 days or less. But he didn’t.

DSS will not yield to protest easily. In their thinking, to do so will be to appear soft and to encourage more protests for others either currently in detention or to be detained in the future. So, the protest of two days ago naturally will have the opposite effect. The fact that they appeared to have yielded to protest in El-Zakzaky means they will feel a need to be tough again. Besides, while El-Zakzaky had people willing to die for him, Sowore has only some of his clueless fellow travellers. If protests did  not get Nnamdi Kanu released, the kind of protest led by Adeyanju two days ago is not going to do it.

This is what to expect:. DSS will arraign Sowore much later. His bail will be a contested issue. So, he will remain in custody for sometime. DSS will come up with all manner of stories to build up the case. Look at Nnamdi Kanu’s case. They know how to build up something big out of little. In Sowore’s case, they will find a lot if they focus on his finances.

So, the protest for Sowore is nice. It will make him feel good. But it merely annoys the DSS because it is not powerful enough to shake them up. As hinted by one security expert who discussed this case with us, DSS probably already infiltrated the group protesting for Sowore and can make an aggressive move on them. If that happens, they will all scatter.